Mesothelioma

A previous model developed by the auditing firm KPMG estimated that the number of It predicted 3530 cases among NSW men between 2006 and 2060.

But the new analysis by Dr Mark Clements, from the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, predicted that 6430 cases of the fatal disease would be recorded over that period, and it would not peak until as late as 2017.

"This has far-reaching consequences for actuarial predictions, where the number of cases out to 2060 may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than the number predicted by KPMG's model," Dr Clements said.

The increase was based on changes on exposure levels and had implications for other asbestos-related diseases like asbestosis, lung cancer and pleural disorders.

Dr Clements said it was unclear why the two models gave different results, but it might be that the earlier picture was influenced by the common belief that peak incidence would be in 2010.

The diseases have been the subject of a large-scale compensation deal involving the building company James Hardie.

The researcher said the new prediction would affect liability claims but there were severa...

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