Mesothelioma

A previous model developed by the auditing firm KPMG estimated that the number of It predicted 3,530 cases among NSW men between 2006 and 2060.

But the new analysis by Dr Mark Clements, from the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, predicts that 6,430 cases of the fatal disease would be recorded over that period, and it won't peak until as late as 2017.

"This has far reaching consequences for actuarial predictions, where the number of cases out to 2060 may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than the number predicted by KPMG's model," Dr Clements said.

The increase was based on changes on exposure levels and would therefore have implications for other asbestos-related diseases like asbestosis, lung cancer and pleural disorders.

He said it was unclear why the two models give different results, but it might be that the earlier picture was influenced by the common belief that peak incidence would be in 2010.

The diseases have been the subject of a large-scale compensation deal involving the building company James Hardie.

The researcher said the new prediction will have implications for liability c...

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